In 2015, Dr Heather McLeod was commissioned by the Ministry of Health to analyse mortality figures and Statistic NZ data. Looking at cause of death, gender, ethnicity and location of death to project trends for future New Zealand.
The figures show that the number of people dying in NZ each year is projected to increase from 30k in 2013 to 45k in 2038 - a 100% increase. This is in part caused by the baby boomer bump.
In Tairāwhiti we have 380 deaths per year on average by 2038 this will have increased to 490 per year. The good news is we will all be living longer – Māori included. 56% of all people dying with be over the age 85and much fewer under 65s will be dying.
The bad news is many more people will die long, slow dwindling deaths over 7-8 years. This type of death will be most common in people over 85 years and many of these people will have Alzheimers or other dementia conditions. The flip side is people are living longer with diseases like cancer.
In NZ in 2016 a 65 year old woman can expect to live another 10.6 years independently and another 10.7 years on top of that with at least some assistance. As these numbers increase the question is how we can afford to support our growing aged population.
The numbers of people will be dying in residential care facilities will increase dramatically. This will challenge our current models of care and how end of life is funded.
Pictured back from left: Sandra Hay, Cheryl Morley (Cancer Society), Holly (Karen) Hollamby, Tori-iti Schwass, Sandy Armstrong, Sarah Bregman (Beetham Healthcare), Mike West, Moetahi Ruru (Hauiti Hauora). Front from left Heather Robertson, Presenter Dr Heather McLeod, Barbara Grout (Hospice Tairāwhiti) Janet Wilson (Gisborne Alzheimers ), Maria Wainui (Hauiti Hauora) and Anne McNabb. Front is Carol Ford.